June Fed Meeting Preview: FOMC To Pause Rate Hikes

The Committee announces its decisions at its eight meetings per year. It explains its actions by commenting on how well the economy is performing, especially inflation and unemployment. Our experts have been helping you master your money for over four decades. We continually strive to provide consumers with the expert advice and tools needed to succeed throughout life’s financial journey. Focusing only on the average would suggest a pattern of weakness leading into the final hike, some strength in the immediate aftermath of the final hike, and then a significant sell-off out to about 100 trading days following the final hike. But, take a look at the same average in the second chart below with the full range of outcomes based on the 14 cycles since the S&P 500’s inception in 1928.

There’s a saying on Wall Street that the Fed stops hiking rates when something breaks. But what spooked depositors in the first place was the fact that SVB had so much of its capital essentially trapped in Treasury bonds, the prices of which fall when interest rates rise. After all, who can forget that rising interest rates sparked turmoil in the banking sector? Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed, Credit Suisse (CS) was forced into the arms of competitor UBS (UBS)  and First Republic Bank had to be rescued by JPMorgan Chase (JPM). The next Fed meeting is expected to bring what market participants are calling a “hawkish pause.”

How do rising interest rates affect the economy?

The Committee adjusts interest rates by setting a target for the fed funds rate. This is the rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans known as fed funds. Banks use these loans to make sure they have enough to meet the Fed’s reserve requirement. Banks must keep this reserve each night at their local Federal Reserve Bank or in cash in their vaults. A hotter-than-expected price burst in May could still force the Fed’s hand this month, but that would be different from what markets expect.

The Fed’s balance sheet policy has been a key part of its battle against inflation. By letting its holdings mature—up to $60 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) each month—the Fed increases costs in credit markets. And surely no one can forget that the fastest pace of rate hikes in four decades absolutely clobbered equity markets in 2022. The S&P 500 generated a total return (price change plus dividends) of -18% last year. Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance.

What history says about final rate hikes

“I do not expect the data coming in over the next couple of months will make it clear that we have reached the terminal rate,” Waller said, referring to the end point for hiking. The third Fed meeting is today, and that likely means the stock market is back to its old push-pull trends. On one hand, investors expecting a 25 basis point rate hike may be surprised to see it not happen.

The Fed appears now to be moving toward a more data-dependent approach in which myriad factors will determine if the rate-hiking cycle continues. The FOMC will also get a couple more final data points on the status of the U.S. economy before it announces its interest rate decision on June 14. The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its April core PCE inflation reading on May 26, and the Labor Department releases its May U.S. jobs report on June 2. “We expect volatility as we move closer to the June 1 debt ceiling deadline, and while we expect a deal to be reached at the 11th hour, we view any near-term pullbacks as buying opportunities. During the last major debt ceiling negotiation in 2011, the market declined but rebounded very quickly,” Bernstein says. In a speech on May 18, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said U.S. economic data has not yet met the requirements to justify maintaining interest rates at current levels.

The Federal Reserve lifted its rate to a target range of 5% to 5.25%

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Specific to the equity side, we maintain our bias toward factors like high interest coverage, low volatility, strong balance sheet, healthy free cash flow, positive earnings revisions/surprises, and pricing power. As usual when I pen these commentaries, in the interest of getting this published in a timely manner, the highlights bulleted below cover the first half hour or so of the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. A lot is riding on the outcome of the FOMC meeting that concludes Wednesday. The degree to which the Fed raises interest rates has important implications for the stock market, inflation and the odds of a recession this year. Regardless of what the Fed does, Cheng and other advisors say that investing consistently, managing debt carefully and moving savings into high-yield accounts can help people get ahead of rising rates. We believe everyone should be able to make financial decisions with confidence.

The Fed’s possible pause might not last forever

The Fed is considering whether to continue fighting inflation or allowing more time for its actions to take effect. “We have seen some progress in terms of inflation coming down, so the thinking is that the Fed might now start to ease off its rate hikes. So that’s why the market is thinking that 25 basis points is more likely at this meeting,” Gibson says.

This is the highest the benchmark rate has been since the U.S. housing market boom in 2006. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to take a breather at its June confab after ten consecutive meetings with rate hikes. “The CPI report continues to depict inflation that is just too high for most people’s good, especially the Federal Reserve’s,” said Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income. “In fact, the report showed that inflation remains remarkably sticky, which doesn’t correspond to virtually any practical thinker’s timeline of when inflation might be expected to start to come down further.” MNI’s Oil and Gas service offers real-time, actionable intelligence and insight on global oil and gas markets, delivered in concise bullet point format, either via the MNI website, Bloomberg or the ICE platform.

Fed Officials Lean Toward Pause in June, But Not Ready to Stop

After that, forecasts diverge with the Fed seeing rates holding steady or moving slightly higher and the market expecting rate cuts perhaps as soon at the Fed’s July meeting. The Fed’s own forecasts suggest one more high is likely, with more possible, and then holding rates at elevated levels for the rest of 2023. Bond markets see some chance of another hike at the upcoming May meeting, but then view rate cuts as almost certain later this year. The disconnect reflects disagreement on the chances of a U.S. recession.

• The FOMC is a key part of the Federal Reserve System, which serves as the central bank of the United States.
• In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities.
• The trick is to moderate inflation without sending the economy into a recession, what economists call a “soft landing.”
• GDP growth of 0.4%, an unemployment rate of 4.5% and a terminal fed funds rate of 5.1%.

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Fed officials are starting to have differing views about which steps the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should take next. Bankrate has partnerships with issuers including, but not limited to, American Express, Bank of America, Capital One, Chase, Citi and Discover. Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC (WFCS) and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. WellsTrade® and Intuitive Investor® accounts are offered through WFCS. Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company.